Work package 3: Projection of the future religious composition of the population in Vienna

(A. Goujon, M. Stonawski, and V. Skirbekk)

Expected Results:

  • Deliverables in terms of scientific publications (one is foreseen) and diffusion through other channels more accessible to journalists, decision makers and the public at large.


Work package 3  will formulate projections of the five main religious denominations/groups[1] at the city level (not at district level) from 2001 to 2051, based on scenarios on the future development of the main demographic parameters (fertility, mortality, international and internal migration) for each religious denomination as well as on scenarios on the transmission of religion from parents to children and on future rates of secularization among the main religions. The projections will help us to derive the sensitivity of the estimates of the future religious landscape of Vienna to the main assumptions regarding demographic patterns, religious characteristics and trends. The projections will particularly be informed by the result of the analysis conducted under Work Package 2 on recent trends:

  • Work package 2.3 will formulate scenarios on fertility by age, sex and religion. We will explore the possibility and the implications of the future convergence of fertility rates by religion, differential changes in fertility timing by religion and their interrelation with developments in the level of education in the city of Vienna.
  • Migration by age, sex and religion will require the input from work package 2.2 on international and internal migration to Vienna. We will test the sensitivity of the estimates of the share of religious populations according to several scenarios based on the migration trends observed in the recent past.
  • The secularization patterns as well as the patterns of the transmission of religion from parents to children will be formulated on the basis of results obtained in word package 2.1.


[1] Roman Catholics, Protestants, Muslims, other religions, and no religion.